Back in August when we took our first appear at how the different campaigns were unfolding, I described Diane Abbott's campaign as, "plucky, threadbare, underfunded, over-achieving and muddled". In the final six weeks I've seen little to transfer my mind, except maybe that it no longer seems that Diane is "over-acheiving" - Ladbrokes currently have Abbott pegged as the favorite to be eliminated first.
The organisation behind her movement seemed to improve as the summer went on. There seemed to be more men on deck, and emails and phonebanking began to yield priority over media appearances as Team Abbott sought to become a hard political climate to their advantage, and win over party members and trade unionists unconvinced by the New Labour years.
MPs though began to abandon Abbott over the summer. The initial 33 who nominated her support in June began to dwindle as those loyal to other candidates (especially David Miliband) began to express their back for others. Today Diane is supported by just 11 MPs (including Harriet Harman who may not voting for her). That's less than 5% of the PLP, 1/3 of those who nominated her and five fewer than John McDonnell had when he stood down to support Diane. That fact alone means Abbott isn't a viable candidate to win this election - no candidate so hobbled in one section of the ballot can bear to go through to the last round intact - but she could even be a shadow cabinet member.
Of form the real people whose support Diane will want to get a member of the shadow cabinet in the upcoming weeks are the real people with whom she has struggled most, her fellow MPs. Women standing for the shadow cabinet are probably to get a best opportunity of being elected than men (because there will be more male candidates), but Diane will still face tough competition. Even if the remaining of the PLP rallies round her, she's not gaurenteed to ensure a station on the front bench - even if she gets the full throated support of McDonnell, Corbyn and others on the left again.
If the voting were taken amongst the wider party, then it's probable that Diane would be taking up a shadow cabinet office in October. She's undoubtedly popular with a substantial segment of the party, although it doesn't look that she has a lock on the remaining vote - with many on the left choosing Ed Miliband, or even Balls as their first preference.
It's not all bad word for Abbott though, and it's crucial to commemorate the successes that Diane has had in this campaign. She has shown that the Labor Party has talent on the rear benches. She helped propel the debate away from immigration when the contest could have become a rush to the bottom. She has granted a representative to many in the company who don't feel represented by the other candidates. And possibly most importantly, Abbott is a larger political figure now than she was second in June. It may not be the leadership, but it's not to be sniffed at. Plucky? Yes. Threadbare and underfunded? Certainly. Over-achieving? Perhaps not. Muddled? Sometimes. A better race with Abbott in it? Almost certainly.
Every evening this week I'll be winning a look backward at each of the leadership campaigns. The reviews will be in alphabetic order, and replace our "In the race" feature, which is fetching a break until conference.